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Monitoring Coffee Futures and the Driving Factors
Coffee prices plunged to 1-week lows on Wednesday, August 26th, as the prospect of increased supplies from Brazil’s coffee harvest entering the market sparked long liquidation in coffee futures. Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as storage space fills up, suggesting that farmers who have been holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to sell more coffee as available storage dwindles. Robusta coffee is also under pressure after ICE robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 9-month high on Tuesday. On Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.5-month high and robusta posted a 2.5-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported on Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of August 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado also reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 224,617 bags on Wednesday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee, as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots on Tuesday...