Coffee prices closed with mixed results on Friday May 8th as tight inventories continued to influence the market. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-month low of 477,045 bags on that same day, while ICE robusta inventories dropped to a 16.5-month low of 3,724 lots. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, creating a bullish effect on prices by tightening supplies through increased global shipping rates, higher insurance and fuel costs, rising fertilizer expenses, and elevated costs for coffee importers and roasters. However, soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On Saturday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports for January through April 2026 rose by 15.8% year over year to 810,000 metric tons, following a 17.5% annual increase in 2025 to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb by 6% year over year to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags. Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop are also negative for prices. Last Thursday, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase by 12% year over year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags, which would represent a 15.5% year over year increase.