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Monitoring Coffee Futures and the Driving Factors
Coffee prices ended mixed on Friday, August 28th, consolidating above Thursday’s lows. Arabica drew support from tight supplies after ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low on Friday, while robusta remained under pressure after ICE robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 9-month high on Tuesday. On Thursday, arabica dropped to a 3-week low and robusta to a 2-month low on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply. Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting that farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase sales as storage space dwindles. Earlier in the week, arabica posted a 7.5-month high and robusta a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s harvest. Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported on Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%; Brazil’s arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%. Falling inventories remain bullish for arabica prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,976 bags on Friday, while rising inventories are bearish for robusta, with ICE robusta coffee inventories climbing to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots on Tuesday...