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Coffee Geography Magazine is a Coffee portal with highly informative, upbeat and inspirational articles for people who are in the coffee industry. We are committed to the success and growth of the global coffee industry.

CGM provides up to the minute data to the market makers.

Chief Editor  

editor@coffeegeography.com

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Coffee prices on Monday July 22nd rallied after Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received no rain last week, versus the historical average for the week of 2.6 mm. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Coffee harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices. Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 74% completed as of July 16, faster than 66% last year at the same time and faster than the 5-year average of 70%. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee beans. However, Safras & Mercado cut its Brazil 2024/25 coffee output estimate to 66 million bags from a previous estimate of 70.4 million bags, citing above-average temperatures and drought that compromised coffee yields. A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is negative for prices. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high Friday of 6,128 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024. Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 17-month high on June 25 of 842,434 bags, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023. In a bearish factor for arabica coffee prices, Cecafe reported July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags. Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production. Coffee trader Volcafe said on May 22 that Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms. Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits. Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year would drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam's 2023/24 coffee exports would drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MMT.

Arabica coffee is the world benchmark for coffee futures contracts that trade on the Inter Continental Exchange (ICE).

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The Brazilian Real/USD Vs the Coffee Price

Coffee prices on Monday July 22nd rallied after Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received no rain last week, versus the historical average for the week of 2.6 mm. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Coffee harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices. Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 74% completed as of July 16, faster than 66% last year at the same time and faster than the 5-year average of 70%. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee beans. However, Safras & Mercado cut its Brazil 2024/25 coffee output estimate to 66 million bags from a previous estimate of 70.4 million bags, citing above-average temperatures and drought that compromised coffee yields. A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is negative for prices. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high Friday of 6,128 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024. Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 17-month high on June 25 of 842,434 bags, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023. In a bearish factor for arabica coffee prices, Cecafe reported July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags. Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production. Coffee trader Volcafe said on May 22 that Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms. Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits. Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year would drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam's 2023/24 coffee exports would drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MMT. .The Brazilian Real is one of the driving factors in the global coffee pricing.

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Coffee Geography Magazine