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Monitoring Coffee Futures and the Driving Factors
Arabica coffee ended lower on Monday, August 31st, as prices consolidated above the 3-week low set last Thursday, when robusta also fell to a 2-month low on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market. With most warehouses in Brazil no longer accepting new coffee supplies as storage space fills up, farmers who have been holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will likely have to increase coffee sales as available space dwindles. Last Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.75-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported last Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of August 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported today that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% completed as of August 26, behind 100% last year and the 5-year average of 98%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 96% complete, behind last year's 99%. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,976 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee, as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots last Tuesday....