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The Brazilian Real/USD Vs the Coffee Price
Coffee prices on Monday December 04 settled sharply lower on signs of bigger supplies. Brazil's Trade Ministry reported late last Friday that Brazil's Nov coffee exports (not roasted) rose +8.5% y/y to 235,000 MT. Also, Honduras, Central America's biggest coffee-producing country, reported its Nov coffee exports jumped +63% y/y to 110,413 bags. Weakness in the Brazilian real (BRL:USD) also pressured coffee prices after the real on Monday fell to a 1-month low against the dollar, encouraging export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Arabica coffee prices last Friday posted a 6-month high on a new rule from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) that bans the resubmission of old coffee inventories, a loophole some sellers use to dodge age penalties. The rule change by ICE is expected to add further pressure to ICE-monitored coffee inventories, providing support for coffee prices. Shrinking ICE coffee inventories are bullish for coffee prices as ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags last Thursday. Meanwhile, today, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories were at 3,750 lots, moderately above the record low of 3,374 lots posted on August 31. In a supportive factor for robusta coffee, Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported last Wednesday that Vietnam's Nov coffee exports rose +83% m/m but fell -37.9% y/y to 80,000 MT and that coffee exports in the first eleven months of this year (Jan-Nov) fell -12.9% y/y to 1.38 MMT. Also, Vietnam's agriculture department on November 3 projected Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year could drop by -10% to 1.656 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. Below-normal rain in Brazil could curb coffee yields and support prices. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 38.7 mm of rainfall in the past week, or 63% of the historical average. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.. The Brazilian Real is one of the driving factors in the global coffee pricing.

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