Indonesia’s Coffee Production and Trade Outlook for 2025/26
May 21 - 2025
Coffee Geography Magazine
Indonesia’s coffee production is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2025/26, reaching 11.3 million bags, driven by improved yields from favorable weather conditions and increased farm inputs. Exports are forecast to rise by 7 percent to 6.5 million bags, while domestic consumption is expected to remain subdued at 4.8 million bags due to weak consumer spending. According to the USDA’s annual report, the United States remains one of the largest importers of Indonesian green coffee beans.
Steady Crop Area with Limited Expansion
The coffee crop area for 2025/26 is expected to remain stable at 1.2 million hectares, as no major replanting or expansion initiatives have been implemented in recent years. Smallholder farms, which average 1–2 hectares and account for 98 percent of total coffee-growing areas, face slow expansion due to labor shortages in high-altitude regions suitable for arabica cultivation. A few large-scale plantations (around 2,000 hectares) operated by private companies are located in Sulawesi and Sumatra, while a state-owned enterprise in East Java manages a sizable robusta plantation.
Regional Production Trends
Sumatra continues to dominate Indonesia’s coffee production, contributing 70–75 percent of the country’s green bean output. Robusta, which makes up 80–90 percent of total production, is primarily grown in southern Sumatra, including the provinces of South Sumatra, Lampung, and Bengkulu. Northern Sumatra is the key arabica-producing region, with smaller volumes cultivated in the high-altitude areas of Java, Sulawesi, and Papua.
Harvest Projections and Yield Improvements
With favorable weather and increased input usage, Indonesia’s 2025/26 coffee production is forecast at 11.3 million bags, up from 10.7 million bags the previous year. In southern Sumatra’s robusta-growing regions, farmers in Jambi and South Sumatra began harvesting in late April to May 2025, with peak output expected between June and July. Robusta production is projected to rise by 500,000 bags to 9.8 million bags, while arabica output is anticipated to increase slightly to 1.45 million bags due to better farm inputs. Arabica is harvested twice annually—first between April and May, followed by a secondary harvest from September or October onward.
The 2024/25 robusta production estimate was revised upward to 9.3 million bags on better-than-expected yields. Exporters noted that many farmers held back beans from late 2024 to early 2025, anticipating further price increases after a 25 percent surge in bean prices between November 2024 and March 2025. Higher coffee prices in recent years have encouraged smallholders to invest more in fertilizers, rejuvenate abandoned plantations, and improve maintenance practices. In Lampung, small-scale farmers often obtain fertilizers and pesticides on credit from village-level aggregators, who are typically fellow farmers. Family labor handles non-harvesting activities, while harvesting is managed through shared labor arrangements to reduce costs.
Yield Challenges and Weather Dependence
Robusta yields in Indonesia typically remain below one ton per hectare and vary by region, often lagging behind arabica. Optimal coffee production depends on balanced sunlight and rainfall after flowering, though heavy rains and strong winds during cherry development can significantly reduce output. Fortunately, favorable weather during the October–November 2024 flowering period is expected to boost robusta yields in lowland growing areas.
Despite these improvements, the adoption of high-yield seedlings remains limited, as many farmers still rely on traditional planting materials. Government-subsidized seedling programs and exporter-led training initiatives for farmers remain confined to select regions.
Export Dynamics and Market Uncertainties
Indonesian green bean exports are forecast to increase by 7 percent to 6.5 million bags in 2025/26, supported by higher production. However, shipments to the U.S. may decline due to trade policy uncertainties. Exports to the U.S. were temporarily halted after tariffs on Indonesian products were announced but resumed with a 10 percent duty during a 90-day pause. Beyond July 2025, when the pause on the 32 percent reciprocal tariff is set to expire, exporters remain cautious about future shipments. Traditional markets such as ASEAN member states, Japan, and the Middle East are expected to absorb any shortfall in U.S. demand.
In 2024/25, the EU, the U.S., Egypt, Malaysia, India, and Japan were the top destinations for Indonesian coffee. U.S. shipments surged by 23 percent year-on-year to 726,000 bags between March 2024 and February 2025, while EU imports—led by Belgium and Germany—doubled to over 1.4 million bags. However, the impending EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective late 2025, may impact 2025/26 trade flows. Exporters are preparing to meet EUDR requirements, including submitting due diligence statements to prove their coffee is deforestation-free.