Colombian Coffee Production Forecast for MY 2025/2026
May 21 - 2025
Coffee Geography Magazine
Colombian coffee production in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/2026 is forecast to decline by 5.3 percent to 12.5 million bags (green bean equivalent, GBE), primarily due to heavy rainfall disrupting flower maturation. This follows a recovery in production during MY 2024/2025, when El Niño conditions boosted growth through elevated temperatures and improved soil moisture, according the the annual report from USDA. However, record-high coffee prices have discouraged farmer investments in replanting and renovations, further contributing to the projected decline.
Exports are expected to decrease slightly to 11.8 million bags GBE in MY 2025/2026, reflecting lower production. The United States remains Colombia’s top coffee export destination, followed by the European Union and Canada.
Production Trends and Weather Impacts
For MY 2024/2025, Post estimates production at 13.2 million bags GBE, a 3.5 percent increase over the previous year. El Niño-driven temperature rises (+0.5 to +1°C above average) accelerated coffee tree growth and concentrated flowering, particularly benefiting young, high-density plantations with improved varieties. However, heavy rains in early 2025 hindered further production gains, affecting both the tail end of MY 2024/2025 and the start of MY 2025/2026.
With La Niña weakening—75 percent probability of neutral conditions by late 2025—monthly production is expected to normalize toward the end of the forecast period.
Disease and Pest Pressures
Coffee leaf rust and berry borer infestations remain manageable, with national prevalence rates at 5.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Widespread adoption of disease-resistant varieties and sound agronomic practices have mitigated risks. However, Colombia’s March 2025 emergency WTO notification regarding Xyella fastidiosa detections in multiple departments has raised concerns, though industry experts anticipate minimal impact on coffee.
Prices, Costs, and Specialty Coffee
Domestic coffee prices, tied to New York futures and the COP/USD exchange rate, reached a record COP 3,118,571 per 125-kg bag in February 2025—a 70 percent year-on-year surge. Despite easing fertilizer costs, rising wages and labor shortages keep production expenses high.
To capitalize on premiums, Colombian growers increasingly focus on specialty coffee, with 40 percent of production certified under schemes like Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade. Fedecafé reports 87 percent of coffee area is now planted with rust-resistant varieties, up from 35 percent in 2010.
Harvest Patterns and Crop Technification
Colombia’s coffee harvest follows two main peaks: the primary crop (October–December) and the mitaca crop (April–June), concentrated in central regions. Approximately 60 percent of production comes from smallholdings under 5 hectares.
As of 2024, 678,230 hectares were planted with "technified" young coffee (3–9 years old), leveraging improved seeds and modern techniques. The December 2024 release of Castillo 2.0, a disease- and climate-resilient variety, could further enhance productivity, though adoption data remains pending.
Export Dynamics and U.S. Tariff Impact
In MY 2024/2025, exports rose 2.5 percent to 12.3 million bags GBE, driven by higher production. The U.S., EU, and Canada accounted for 75.4 percent of shipments from October 2024–February 2025, with U.S. imports rebounding after a five-year slump.
A new 10 percent U.S. tariff on Colombian goods (including coffee) under Executive Order 14257 (April 2025) is unlikely to significantly dent demand, as competing origins face similar duties. Meanwhile, Procafecol (owner of Juan Valdez) has partnered with Green Coffee Company Holdings to expand its North American retail presence, targeting supermarkets and institutional buyers. Fedecafé handles 18 percent of exports, with private firms managing the remainder.