Mexico’s Coffee Production and Trade Outlook for 2025/26
May 24 - 2025
Coffee Geography Magazine
Mexico’s coffee production is projected to reach 3.9 million green bean equivalent (GBE) in the 2025/26 marketing year (October 2025–September 2026), a slight increase from the revised 3.8 million GBE in MY 2024/25. This growth is attributed to government and market incentives for planting, higher international coffee prices, and regional efforts to rejuvenate aging plantations in key states such as Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla. Updated data from Mexico’s Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) estimates MY 2023/24 production at 3.35 million GBE, reflecting earlier challenges.
Crop Trends by Variety
Arabica coffee production has been revised upward to 3.5 million GBE for MY 2025/26, driven by sustained high prices. In contrast, Robusta production is expected to decline by approximately 2,000 GBE due to heatwaves in Veracruz’s lowland areas between June and October 2024, which disrupted flowering and cherry development.
Regional Production Dynamics
Mexico’s coffee cultivation spans 14 states, but four states dominate production: Chiapas (37%), Veracruz (24%), Puebla (22%), and Oaxaca (8.4%), collectively contributing 91.4% of national output. Chiapas, the largest producer, maintains yields near the national average of 5.89 GBE/ha. Veracruz, recovering from MY 2024/25 heatwaves, achieves a yield of 7.04 GBE/ha. Puebla stands out with productivity double the national average, supported by advanced farming practices, pest-resistant varieties, and proximity to urban infrastructure. Oaxaca, despite its significant harvested area, faces lower yields, ranking third-lowest nationally.
Emerging growth areas include Puebla, Colima, and Jalisco, where government programs have expanded planted areas. Conversely, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Mexico State, and San Luis Potosí report declining output. Yearly production volatility persists due to weather extremes, disease outbreaks (e.g., coffee leaf rust), labor shortages, and rising input costs.
Export Outlook
Mexico’s coffee exports for MY 2025/26 are forecast at 3.05 million GBE, with soluble coffee shipments projected to reach 1.6 million GBE (see Figure 4). The United States remains the primary destination for green, roasted, and soluble coffee. Export volumes typically peak between April and May, a pattern consistent over the past decade.
Previous marketing years saw revisions: MY 2024/25 exports were adjusted upward to 2.9 million GBE due to stronger-than-expected soluble coffee demand, while MY 2023/24 exports were revised downward based on updated Trade Data Monitor reports.
Mexico’s coffee sector shows cautious optimism for 2025/26, with production growth driven by price incentives and agricultural improvements. However, challenges such as climate vulnerability and regional disparities persist. Puebla’s high-yield model highlights the potential of targeted investments, while rising soluble coffee exports underscore Mexico’s evolving role in global markets. Strategic investments in climate resilience and value-added processing will be critical to sustaining long-term competitiveness.