After rising by 4.4% to 168.49 million bags in 2018/19, global coffee consumption is estimated to have decreased by 2.4% to 164.53 million bags in 2019/20. The decline in global coffee demand stemmed from the downturn in the global economy coupled with losses in out-of-home consumption as social distancing measures and lockdowns were in place throughout much of the coffee year.
In 2020/21, global demand for coffee is expected to stage a limited recovery as social distancing measures remain in place and the global economy slowly picks up. World coffee consumption is projected to increase by 1.3% to 166.63 million bags. Consumption in Africa is estimated to grow by 1.8% to 12.24 million bags, in Asia & Oceania, by 1.4% to 36.5 million bags and in Central America & Mexico, by 0.2% to 5.36 million bags. Coffee demand in Europe is projected to grow by 1.2% to 54.35 million bags. North America’s coffee consumption is estimated to rise by 1.4% to 30.99 million bags, while consumption in South America is projected to increase by 1% to 27.18 million bags.
The larger increase in global production against the limited recovery in consumption leads to a projected surplus of 5.27 million bags at the end of coffee year 2020/21. Tightness in supplies at the start of the year, due in part to delays in harvesting as well as concerns over the impact from hurricanes Eta and Iota have helped to push up prices in the short-term. However, this is unlikely to last throughout the year as more of the current crop as well as ample supplies from Brazil’s on-year crop in 2020/21 reach the market. This could limit further increases in coffee prices later in the coffee year unless demand recovers more quickly than currently anticipated.