In 2019/20 global coffee production was estimated at 168.68 million bags, 0.9% lower than the previous
year due largely to the decline
in Arabica production from
Brazil. In 2020/21, world coffee production is forecasted to increase by 1.9%
to 171.9 million bags. Arabica production in 2020/21 is estimated to grow by
5.2% to 101.88 million bags, reflecting the increase in Brazil’s Arabica
production, which is in the on-year of the biennial cycle, as well as expected
growth from other major Arabica producers,
such as Colombia. However, Robusta production is projected to decline by
2.6% to 70.02 million bags, due largely to a decrease in Viet Nam’s output.

After rising by 0.5% to
18.68 million bags in 2019/20, Africa’s output in 2020/21 is projected to fall
by 0.8% to 18.54 million bags. Ethiopia
is the world’s fifth largest and Africa’s largest producer of coffee. In
coffee year 2020/21,
its output is
projected to increase
by 0.4% to 7.38 million bags due
to improved rainfall and newer trees
coming into production. However, Ethiopia's export is now second from Africa under the new giant exporter Uganda. Uganda is
the region’s second largest producer, and its harvest is forecast to rise by 2%
to 5.62 million bags, which would be the third consecutive year of increase. New trees coming into production continue to
boost Uganda’s overall output and the beneficial weather during the growing
season is contributing to the larger harvest in 2020/21. Production in Côte d’Ivoire, the region’s
third largest producer, is estimated to fall by 8% to 1.78 million bags.

Output
from Asia & Oceania is estimated to contract by 0.4% to 49.27 million bags
in 2020/21. The harvest in Viet Nam, the world’s second largest and the
region’s largest producer is projected to fall by 4.9% to 29 million bags.
Insufficient rainfall and low prices, which discouraged farmers from investing in coffee, are contributing to the lower
production. However, output from Indonesia is estimated to increase by
5.1% to 12.27 million bags, and its exports during the first nine months of its
2020/21 crop year increased 11.2% to 5.54 million bags. After decreasing by 19.4%
over the last three years, output from India is expected to grow by 14.7% to
5.7 million bags as a result of sufficient rainfall compared to droughts in
previous years, though the impact of heavy rains during the monsoon season may
affect the yield or quality of the crop.
After
declining in the previous two years, production in Central America & Mexico
is projected to remain stable at 19.54 million bags in 2020/21. At the start of
the year, parts of the region were severely affected by hurricanes Iota and
Eta, which will likely impact production in the region as it recovers. Honduras
is the region’s largest producer, and its output is estimated to rise by 2.8%
to 6.1 million bags, following a 21.5% decrease in the last two seasons. To
encourage production, the Government of Honduras provided fertilizer to
farmers, and beneficial weather during the growing seasons should help yields.
While the full impact of the hurricanes is still being assessed, the initial
evaluation noted that around 3% of producing areas were totally or partially
affected, and that destruction of infrastructure also increased risk of loss.
Mexico’s harvest could increase by 0.8% to 4 million bags. Production in Guatemala
is estimated to grow by 4% to 3.75 million bags.
Offsetting
losses in other regions, production in South America is anticipated to grow by
4.4% to
84.54
million bags in 2020/21, accounting for 49.2% of global production. Brazil’s output
is estimated to grow by 12.5% in the current crop year to 69.58 million bags.
Its Arabica crop is in an on-year of the biennial cycle and good weather has
further boosted yields. Its exports in the first nine months of its crop year reached
34.53 million bags, 13.1% higher than in 2019/20 and
24.6%
higher compared to 2018/19.
Colombia’s output is projected to grow by 1.4% to
14.3
million bags. There were concerns that La Niña would negatively impact production, particularly for the mitaca
crop, which have not come to fruition. Further, higher domestic prices,
particularly as the Colombian peso has depreciated against the US dollar has
encouraged farmers to harvest their coffee, and recently renovated plantations
coming into production has improved
yields.