In 2019/20 global coffee production was estimated at 168.68 million bags, 0.9% lower than the previous year due largely to the decline in Arabica production from Brazil. In 2020/21, world coffee production is forecasted to increase by 1.9% to 171.9 million bags. Arabica production in 2020/21 is estimated to grow by 5.2% to 101.88 million bags, reflecting the increase in Brazil’s Arabica production, which is in the on-year of the biennial cycle, as well as expected growth from other major Arabica producers, such as Colombia. However, Robusta production is projected to decline by 2.6% to 70.02 million bags, due largely to a decrease in Viet Nam’s output.
After rising by 0.5% to 18.68 million bags in 2019/20, Africa’s output in 2020/21 is projected to fall by 0.8% to 18.54 million bags. Ethiopia is the world’s fifth largest and Africa’s largest producer of coffee. In coffee year 2020/21, its output is projected to increase by 0.4% to 7.38 million bags due to improved rainfall and newer trees coming into production. However, Ethiopia's export is now second from Africa under the new giant exporter Uganda. Uganda is the region’s second largest producer, and its harvest is forecast to rise by 2% to 5.62 million bags, which would be the third consecutive year of increase. New trees coming into production continue to boost Uganda’s overall output and the beneficial weather during the growing season is contributing to the larger harvest in 2020/21. Production in Côte d’Ivoire, the region’s third largest producer, is estimated to fall by 8% to 1.78 million bags.
Output from Asia & Oceania is estimated to contract by 0.4% to 49.27 million bags in 2020/21. The harvest in Viet Nam, the world’s second largest and the region’s largest producer is projected to fall by 4.9% to 29 million bags. Insufficient rainfall and low prices, which discouraged farmers from investing in coffee, are contributing to the lower production. However, output from Indonesia is estimated to increase by 5.1% to 12.27 million bags, and its exports during the first nine months of its 2020/21 crop year increased 11.2% to 5.54 million bags. After decreasing by 19.4% over the last three years, output from India is expected to grow by 14.7% to 5.7 million bags as a result of sufficient rainfall compared to droughts in previous years, though the impact of heavy rains during the monsoon season may affect the yield or quality of the crop.
After declining in the previous two years, production in Central America & Mexico is projected to remain stable at 19.54 million bags in 2020/21. At the start of the year, parts of the region were severely affected by hurricanes Iota and Eta, which will likely impact production in the region as it recovers. Honduras is the region’s largest producer, and its output is estimated to rise by 2.8% to 6.1 million bags, following a 21.5% decrease in the last two seasons. To encourage production, the Government of Honduras provided fertilizer to farmers, and beneficial weather during the growing seasons should help yields. While the full impact of the hurricanes is still being assessed, the initial evaluation noted that around 3% of producing areas were totally or partially affected, and that destruction of infrastructure also increased risk of loss. Mexico’s harvest could increase by 0.8% to 4 million bags. Production in Guatemala is estimated to grow by 4% to 3.75 million bags.
Offsetting losses in other regions, production in South America is anticipated to grow by 4.4% to
84.54 million bags in 2020/21, accounting for 49.2% of global production. Brazil’s output is estimated to grow by 12.5% in the current crop year to 69.58 million bags. Its Arabica crop is in an on-year of the biennial cycle and good weather has further boosted yields. Its exports in the first nine months of its crop year reached 34.53 million bags, 13.1% higher than in 2019/20 and
24.6% higher compared to 2018/19. Colombia’s output is projected to grow by 1.4% to
14.3 million bags. There were concerns that La Niña would negatively impact production, particularly for the mitaca crop, which have not come to fruition. Further, higher domestic prices, particularly as the Colombian peso has depreciated against the US dollar has encouraged farmers to harvest their coffee, and recently renovated plantations coming into production has improved yields.