New report by Climate Central shows Climate Change Adds 47 Days of Harmful Heat to Coffee-Growing Regions, Threatening Global Supply
February 20 - 2026
Coffee Geography Magazine
For the millions who rely on a daily cup of coffee to start their morning, the morning news is brewing something bitter: your favorite beverage is under direct threat from a warming planet. A new analysis from the independent research group Climate Central has quantified just how severely climate change is impacting coffee production, revealing that rising temperatures are adding weeks of harmful heat to growing seasons across the world’s top coffee-producing nations.
The study, which analyzed daily temperatures from 2021 to 2025 in 25 countries that account for 97% of the world's coffee supply, found that human-caused carbon pollution is pushing temperatures past critical thresholds for coffee plants. The key danger zone? Anything above 30°C (86°F). For the delicate arabica plant, which makes up 60-70% of the global coffee supply, this level of heat is "extremely harmful." For the hardier robusta plant, it’s suboptimal, hurting both the quality and quantity of the bean harvest.
The findings paint a stark picture. On average, the 25 nations studied experienced an extra 47 days per year above that 30°C threshold—days that simply would not have been so hot without the influence of climate change. The world's top five coffee producers—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia—which together supply 75% of the world’s coffee, now face more than 144 days of such harmful heat each year. Without climate change, that number would be roughly 57 days lower.
Brazil, the globe's undisputed coffee giant, is feeling the heat most acutely in terms of volume. The country sees an average of 70 extra days of coffee-harming heat each year due to climate change. Its primary coffee-growing state, Minas Gerais, endures an additional 67 such days annually.
The consequences extend far beyond the farm. This heat stress is a primary driver of the volatile and record-high coffee prices seen recently. In December 2024 and again in February 2025, global coffee prices spiked, a trend experts link directly to adverse climatic conditions in the "bean belt." When heat withers harvests in Brazil or Vietnam, the reduced supply sends ripple effects through the global market, eventually hitting consumers' wallets. In the U.S., where two-thirds of adults drink coffee daily, these pressures have been compounded by other factors like tariffs, leading to pricier coffee at cafes and grocery stores.
The most severe impacts are felt in Central America. El Salvador, for instance, now experiences an estimated 99 additional days of coffee-harming heat each year because of climate change, the highest increase of any nation studied. It is followed by Nicaragua (77) and Thailand (75).
Climate change doesn’t operate in a vacuum. The report notes that shifting rainfall patterns, like the 2023 drought in Brazil, are also devastating to crops, while warmer temperatures allow pests like the coffee berry borer to thrive and spread to new areas.
This new reality is forcing a difficult reckoning for the industry and the roughly 12.5 million smallholder farmers who depend on coffee for their livelihoods. Without significant adaptation, the land suitable for coffee farming could shrink by 50% by 2050. Farmers are being forced to adapt, often by moving to higher, cooler elevations or planting shade trees to protect their crops from the intense sun. While these methods offer hope, they also carry risks, such as encroaching on vital forest ecosystems.
Climate Central’s analysis makes one thing clear: the climate shift is no longer a distant prediction. It is here, it is quantifiable, and it is already transforming the simple act of enjoying a morning coffee into a casualty of a warming world.