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Tropical Research Services (TRS) announces a 4% coffee reduction in 2022 production year

Tropical Research Services (TRS) announces a 4% coffee reduction in 2022 production year

September 2 - 2021 Coffee Geography Magazine

The recent frost damage in Brazil was assessed by Tropical Research Services (TRS) to analyze the scale of the destruction to the coffee plantation in the country. During the webcast organized by the Intercontinental Exchange, TRS claimed a 4% loss to the country’s 2022 crop year.

According to Steve Wateridge, TRS’s global head, the frost were not as severe as the 2001 and 1994 weather incidents.

He added that TRS expects a loss of around 2.7 million 60-kg bags to Brazil's 2022/23 coffee crop potential from the frosts, taking into consideration the forecaster's initial estimate for a crop around 68 million bags next year in the world's largest producer and exporter.

brazil frost coffee farm

Guaxupe, Brazilian coffee exporter has its own estimation of a potential loss of over 4 million bags showing a 50 % difference in the two assessment data. Another trader, Comexim put its  figure with a 20% fall in the production in the south Minas Gerais coffee producing region.

TRS’s figure is based on the percentage of area so severely affected that coffee production will not start to recover until the 2024 and 2025 crops, but it does not include the much larger area of coffee farms which will have to be renovated or replanted because of the uneven impact of damage by the frost.

History will remember it as the Black Frost Of 2021 unlike the “black frost” weather condition that mostly hits the state of Parana in 1975 and 1978, and led to an estimated 90% of the state’s farmers abandon coffee production in the southernmost part of the Brazilian coffee belt.

Steve Wateridge, TRS’s global head
Steve Wateridge, TRS’s global head

Wateridge believes the current drought in Brazil will have a larger impact than the frost. TRS currently estimates a loss of 6.3 million bags for the potential arabica production next season from the drought alone.

Brazil produces 40% of the entire coffee consumed around the world, and even though an overall loss that is now recorded might not sound like much, as it makes up for as much as the entire coffee grown in Mexico and most of Central America combined. There is no other producing country or region in the world with even remotely close to the ability to make up for such a major shortfall in Brazil

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