Indonesian Coffee Production Set to Slump 8% in 2026/27 as Heavy Rains Batter Key Robusta Regions
May 19 - 2026
Coffee Geography Magazine
Indonesia’s green bean coffee production is expected to face a significant downturn in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to a new analysis from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency’s latest GAIN report forecasts an 8 percent decline in output, driven by adverse weather conditions that have disrupted the critical flowering and fruit development phases for the country’s dominant Robusta crop.
The USDA projects that total production will fall to approximately 11.38 million 60-kilogram bags, down from previous estimates. The forecasted drop is largely attributed to excessive and untimely rainfall across Southern Sumatra and several key growing regions on the island of Java, which together form the backbone of Indonesia’s Robusta supply.
Robusta and Arabica Both Under Pressure
The report notes that persistent heavy rains have interfered with pollination and cherry set in Robusta areas, potentially reducing bean density and increasing the risk of defects. Meanwhile, the country’s smaller but highly prized Arabica sector has also been dealt a blow. The USDA’s post has revised its Arabica production figures downward for the 2025/26 season, citing devastating floods that swept through growing zones in Aceh and North Sumatra.
Local traders have reported that standing water in several low-lying plantations has led to root damage and an outbreak of fungal diseases, further compounding the losses.
Export Outlook Dampened
Despite the projected decline in domestic supply, the USDA report indicates that Indonesia will still maintain a significant presence in the global market. Post projects that Indonesian green bean exports will reach 7 million bags in the 2026/27 cycle. While this volume remains substantial, it suggests tighter domestic inventories as roasters and exporters compete for the reduced harvest.
Industry analysts warn that the production shortfall could support higher global Robusta prices, which have already been volatile due to supply concerns from other major producers like Vietnam. For domestic consumers, a lower exportable surplus may not necessarily translate to cheaper local coffee, as international buyers often outbid local mills for premium grades.
The USDA notes that these projections remain preliminary and subject to change depending on weather patterns during the remainder of the harvest cycle. However, with the La Niña phenomenon expected to linger in the region, farmers are bracing for continued humidity and rainfall above historical averages.