Global Coffee Outlook: Honduras and Mexico Grow While India Weathers Volatility
May 16 - 2026
Coffee Geography Magazine
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), through its Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), has released a set of Coffee Annual Reports for three coffee producing regions, painting a complex picture of global supply. While Honduras and Mexico are on track for production gains fueled by improved agronomic practices and expanding markets, India faces climate-induced yield pressures and declining prices, even as its domestic consumption and value-added exports rise.
Honduras is poised for a significant expansion. The GAIN report forecasts Honduran coffee production to reach 5.53 million 60-kg bags in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, jumping further to 6.03 million bags in MY 2026/27. This growth is supported by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management, and the maturation of new plantations. Consequently, Honduran exports are projected to climb to 5.03 million bags in MY 2025/26 and 5.50 million bags the following year.
Neighboring Mexico shows more modest but steady progress. Mexico’s MY 2026/2027 production is forecast to increase 1 percent to 4.1 million green bean equivalent (GBE) , driven by expanded robusta acreage and better management practices. Domestic consumption is also rising by 1 percent, supported by growth in ready-to-drink coffee retail shops and specialty coffee trends. The United States remains the primary destination for Mexican coffee exports, reinforcing regional trade integration.
Turning to South Asia, India’s outlook is more volatile. FAS Mumbai forecasts India’s MY 2026/27 production at 6.14 million 60-kg bags. However, yields—especially for Arabica—are under pressure due to excessive rainfall in January and February followed by an extended dry spell during the critical flowering and fruiting stage. Farmgate prices for Arabica and Robusta have already declined by 16 percent and 11 percent respectively since October. While prices still command a premium over other origins, further moderation is expected due to anticipated higher output from key producing countries and elevated domestic stock levels. Despite this, India’s domestic consumption is projected to rise to 1.58 million 60-kg bags, fueled by strong demand for soluble coffee. Exports are forecast to increase to 6.2 million bags, supported by a higher exportable surplus and recent free trade agreements expected to boost value-added coffee shipments.
The three regional reports highlight a global sector where production trajectories diverge sharply. Honduras leverages agronomic investment and natural cycles to drive double-digit growth; Mexico steadily expands its robusta and specialty markets; and India navigates climatic extremes and price corrections while finding resilience in soluble coffee and trade pacts.